Seymour Zises, President and co-founder of Family Management, writes bi-monthly opinions on issues and observations of relevance to clients and investors.
Call it what you want, but the equity market is on a roll. As the tax bill became law and companies began to announce bonuses, the spirit of American business seems to have been buoyed by the current administration. With 12 months behind us, who would have thought that the Dow Jones Average would be up over 29% since Mr. Trump’s election.
Mr. Trump has been Commander-In-Chief for one year, and oh what a year it has been. In our world, the financial one, the U.S. stock markets have surged to all-time highs.
As the summer receded, we saw many surprises indeed. The U.S. stock market surged, despite the despair brewing from the aftermath of the hurricanes, and more quietly, from job loss and income inequality, which has taken center stage in America.
This is the net interest rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note as of mid-day on the first business day of 2011. Where this rate goes is really indicative of almost everything that happens in the financial world and is reflective of so many factors. If interest rates move higher, it will either portend an economic recovery or a dollar crisis. Obviously, we prefer the former.
The problems that were with us in 2010 have not gone away. Neither has the enormous stimulus and tax relief that is being extended to all of us.
It is roughly a decade since the brewing of the financial crisis. Since that time, central banks worldwide have flooded the markets with what economists call, “helicopter money”; vast volumes of notes printed and circulated – as if flung from a helicopter – to create growth and inflation in their national economies.