Reflecting on the Q3 2021 earnings season, a common theme was observing companies posting top-line revenue beats, though some missing expectations on bottom-line earnings-per-share (EPS) and providing slightly softer guidance on future growth as many of the companies noted continued challenges with supply chain disruptions, persistent raw material inflation, and ongoing labor shortages.
The quarter began with a strong earnings season with Q2 2021 reported earnings above expectations. The S&P 500 posted Q2 2021 earnings growth of 62.5% YoY, yet despite the strong numbers, one of the key reasons was due to easier comps versus Q2 2020 during which the sharpest decline of company growth took place shortly after the pandemic began.
Stocks advanced in the second quarter of 2021 as investors cheered a stronger than expected reopening. Sectors such as travel, leisure, and consumer discretionary saw large impulsive spending increases. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve grappled with whether the price increases seen in the economy were temporary, as a supply constrained environment failed to meet enough capacity of the reopening demand.
The first quarter of 2021 was full of headlines within the stock market. From Gamestop in January to the crumbling of $25bil Archegos in March, explosive events abounded. That being said, the most important narratives began in early January when Democratic candidates won both seats up for grabs in the runoff elections for the US Senate in Georgia to swing the balance of power in Congress. From that date forward, financial markets shifted to reflect a growing importance of fiscal stimulus. While monetary stimulus dominated the 2010s, the fiscal element lacked.
Quarterly Commentary is a quarterly view of the equities, fixed income and hedge fund markets from our Family Management specialists.